With the publishing of the Wineleaks of July, we would like to add some new data to go along the market trends: Saturnalia Vintage Score and an average score given by Bordeaux major critics. These new additions should help in drawing a more complete picture of the value of the wines taken into consideration and in guiding purchase decisions. We remind you that our Vintage Score is obtained through an AI-driven model that learns year by year how weather and vines status influence the vintage. The main critics scores are also included, so that the model learns over time how to interpret their scoring. We remind you that our scores for Bordeaux 2021 and for vintages back to 2013 are available for everyone on our platform: access a 7-day free trial here.
Thanks to our algorithmic calculations we are able to tell you in advance which wines seem promising for the next month and which should get particular attention in the Bordeaux market.
A promising candidate seems to be Léoville Poyferré 2019: not only has it experienced a growth of +25% since release, but our Monthly Price Trend predicts another increase of at least 15% for next month. The wine earned an average score of 96.4 from critics and also our Vintage Score seems to be in line with their judgement: it corresponds to 97.
Keep an eye on this wine, but from the previous vintage, 2018: Léoville Poyferré 2018 seems to have dropped a bit in value since release, experiencing a -0.73% loss. Not that much, but still an important one if we consider that our algorithms expect another loss of at least -15% for the next month. We gave 95.3 points to this wine, 1 point less than the critics average, which settles at 96.3. You can see for yourself the variations and predictions of the other best and worst performers of the market.
What we would like to do now is take a step further: what happens if we take into consideration the Vintage Scores and market trends of the same wines for the 2021 vintage? Take as an example Pichon Lalande 2021, critics average scored it 95, but our AI-driven Vintage Score evaluates it 97.6. The price on Liv-ex is 1.600£ (12×75), but our Estimated Fair Price model (which shows a high confidence level) gives it at £1867. Now, the question is: if the actual price is underestimated, could it represent a really good investment opportunity? We don’t have any crystal ball, but we are confident in our models: let’s wait for the next months to see if the market will grow accordingly to our predicted evaluations for this wine.
Last but not least, an analysis of our past predictions. In the table below you can see a summary of the predictions we made for June. Our Monthly Price Trend correctly estimated the growth and loss in value for 4 out of 6 wines: certainly it’s impossible to correctly predict all price variations every month for all wines. Too many factors have an impact on the determination of market price. However, despite its limits, our model still offers a competitive advantage for merchants and collectors, as it manages to take into account, leverage and explain a number of these factors, as shown below.
We are working on better understanding the ties among all the data we produce: stay tuned for our next blog post, which will draw some conclusions on our Vintage Score 2021 for Bordeaux Primeurs. 2021 was deemed by critics and weather data a heterogeneous and challenging vintage, with some positive surprises like Pichon Lalande 2021 and some wines whose price may have been set a little too high according to our grape quality model. Subscribe to our newsletter if you don’t want to lose any update on Bordeaux and many other fine wine regions.
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