Fair Price: the most convenient Bordeaux wines at a glance

Let’s consider the charts above showing the Liv-ex Fair Value for Ducru Beaucaillou (figure 2) and Haut-Brion (figure 4). First of all, both are examples of good correlation, with R² above the 0.5 threshold. If we consider Ducru Beaucaillou, the behaviour of the two models (Saturnalia and Liv-ex) is very similar. However, the Liv-ex Fair Value tends to decrease with scores below 89: a trend that is not common. On the other hand, the second case – Haut-Brion – shows a totally different approach. It seems to suggest that a higher score corresponds to a lower market price or at least a plateau in value. Our model – based on the previous input assumptions – does not allow this fitting, being able to score a good correlation anyway (R²=0.75).

Following our initial explanation, can you recognise a good deal for these wines? 2015 for Ducru seems overpriced (12×75, £1,700) while a good bargain could be vintage 2019 or 2021.

Thus, it only takes a rapid glance to distinguish between undervalued and overvalued wines, making our model a helpful tool in providing additional information when making a market decision. Obviously, our model is not 100% reliable: the correlation between scores and prices is not a given, as other factors which cannot be predicted by the model may enter the scene. Let’s consider for example what happened with Figeac after September 2022 classification: as you can see from our chart below (figure 5), all vintages have benefited from an increase in value towards the end of the time period. Our model does not include such market commotions, and the same goes for ageing potential.