#wineleaks: September 2022

After a short summer break, we are back with our #wineleaks monthly issue. Harvests are at their peak and every wine lover is waiting to see how the new vintage of their favourite label will come out. In the meanwhile, let’s see which price fluctuations our AI-driven model expects for September on the Bordeaux market. We remind you that every month our Monthly Price Trend model predicts the gains or losses in value for the most traded 100 Bordeaux wines: if you want to understand more about its functioning, visit our FAQ section. 

Let’s start from the 3 best performers: according to the model all 3 wines will experience an increase in value of at least 15% in the near future. The prices are expressed in GBP and are referred to the value of the wine in cases of 12 bottles. VAT, other taxes and logistics prices are not included. 

Ausone 2019 seems to be on a positive trend, with a release price of £ 5280 going up to £ 6500, a 23% increase. Our data-driven Vintage Score corresponds to 98.5 points which is in line with critics’ average of 98.3. 

Canon 2019 experiences a 37% increase (+ £ 324) going from £ 876 to £ 1200. Less than 1 point separates our Vintage Score (96.6) from critics’ overall vintage evaluation (97.4). 

However, it is Petrus 2019 the label to which collectors and investors should pay the highest attention: released at £ 20500, current price is £ 56913 (a 177% increase). Our Vintage score and critics’ score are on the same page, with 97.7 and 97.6 respectively. And yet another increase of at least 15% is still expected by our algorithmic model, so keep a close eye on this wine. 

To draw a full picture of the Bordeaux market, here are the 3 wines which our model expects not to perform well this month, with a loss in value of at least -15%. 

Beausejour Duffau 2020 was released at £ 600 and it is now selling at £ 538 (-10.3% decrease). Our Vintage Score settles at 94.3, almost 2 points less than the critics average (96.2). 

Conseillante 2020 experienced a small loss: release price was £ 1872 and current price is £ 1860, but beware for possible greater losses in the near future. Saturnalia analytics for the growing season resulted in a Vintage Score of 95.7 points, 2 full points less than the critics (97.7 average)

Domaine Chevalier 2020 started from £ 565 and is now selling at £ 517 (-8.5%). Our Vintage score evaluated the quality of the growing season as a 94.3, while critics assigned the vintage 95.6 points on average. 

What about our Wineleaks for August? 

Our algorithmic predictions were correct in 4 instances out of 6. You can see in detail for which wines we correctly estimated the fluctuations on the market in the summary table below. Market prices are determined by a mixture of internal and external factors which cannot be always turned into input data for our model: our predictions are not a given, but they can extract a fairly reasonable overview of which moves are likely to happen on the Bordeaux market, month by month. To learn more about our services, visit our dedicated section.